A blog on predicting and forecasting using stats from the betting market. Founded by Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild.

Other Prediction Markets
Iowa Electronic Markets

One of the first prediction markets (if you do not count casinos as prediction markets).


SciCast is a research project run by George Mason University and sponsored by IARPA to forecast the outcomes of key issues in science and technology.


Metaculus is a survey platform ( or “prediction engine” or “prediction assembler” as the two founders describe it). It does not uses real or virtual money. Instead, it directly solicits predicted probabilities from its users, then aggregates those probabilities